Will Rory McIlroy ever win a major again?

The middle of 2024 will mark ten years since Rory McIlroy won his last major when he went all the way during the 143rd Open Championship at Royal Liverpool Golf Club in 2014.

It was a victory that indicated two things. The first was that it was almost a given that McIlroy would complete the Grand Slam needing only the Masters to win and the second was that he would get close to Jack Nicklaus’ all-time major tally of 18.

Over 3500 days later McIlroy remains on four majors and hasn't won at Augusta National. So, will the Northern Irishman win another after such an unexpected drought?

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McIlroy expected to end major drought 

If the latest PGA odds are anything to go by then the answer might be yes as McIlroy has been priced at 9/1 to win the 106th edition of the event in mid-May.

If you plan on betting on golf before the start of the year’s second major then you’ll see that only Scottie Scheffler has better odds at 7/2. 

In this sense, the door seems wide open for McIlroy to rejoin the winners' circle during majors sooner rather than later. While undoubtedly a possibility, this has been said repeatedly over the last decade to no avail. 

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A prolific winner, just not in majors 

What’s even more damning for McIlroy in terms of his future prospects at majors is that he was won 21 times since his last major win in Liverpool, with 17 wins coming on the PGA Tour and four on the European Tour.

What this proves is that McIlroy doesn't have a problem getting over the line during ordinary tour events but is coming up against a psychological barrier at majors that is proving impossible to shift. 

Nice to add another National Open to the CV. Incredible week in Scotland. Can’t wait to come back next year. @ScottishOpen pic.twitter.com/3N0c8MCVYh

— Rory McIlroy (@McIlroyRory) July 16, 2023

Indeed, more often than not, McIlroy is putting himself into  contention to win a major but failing to see the job through for whatever reason. Tellingly, the 34-year-old has recorded 12 top-ten finishes in majors since 2019, including two runners-up finishes.

These numbers certainly illustrate how different things could have been for McIlroy who, if he had converted even half of these finishes, could have been on course to eclipse Nicklaus’ record. That ship has undoubtedly sailed now and given this recurring theme, it has to be a possibility that the Northern Irishman doesn't add even a solitary major to the four he has already won before he retires.

The problem is that the longer this persists, the more scar tissue builds up and the harder it will get.

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Can McIlroy beat his own self-doubt as well as Scottie Scheffler? 

Equally, even when McIlroy isn’t battling his own inner demons, he will now also have to find a way to stop a host of generation talents currently on tour - namely 2024 Masters champion Scheffler who is beginning to make professional golf look alarmingly easy.

For the second time in three years, Scottie Scheffler wins the Masters Tournament. #themasters pic.twitter.com/hVKptJoGyp

— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 14, 2024

The feeling in the world of golf is that we are entering the age of Scheffler which will mean there is less of the major pie for the rest of professional golf to get their hands on. This is a consequence that will directly affect McIlroy as it did at the Masters in 2022 when only Scheffler finished ahead of him. 

It is undoubtedly an uncertain outlook for a golfer whose major drought has been one of the most unexpected storylines in professional golf. Ultimately, you can't help but wonder if his window of opportunity to win another has come and gone.